Monday, August 12, 2013

Japan's debt passes a quadrillion yen

POSTED:

Japan's soaring national debt, already more than twice the size of its economy, has reached a new milestone, surpassing 1 quadrillion yen.

Let the word quadrillion roll around in your brain for a moment or two, because it is not something you hear every day. Quadrillion. 1,000,000,000,000,000. Really.

A paltry million is the numeral one followed by six zeros. A billion? Nine zeros. A trillion is getting up there: 12 zeros. But the mighty quadrillion has 15 of them.

The mind boggles. (Although it doesn't googol: That one is followed by 100 zeros. And that's the actual spelling. You can Google it.)

A quadrillion is a million billion, putting it into the kind of language used by middle schoolers to describe really humongous sums, along with gazillion and bazillion.

Measuring any currency in quadrillions brings to mind the hyperinflation of Germany between the wars, or Zimbabwe in the last decade. But a country with a real currency?

It is such a big and unusual word, describing such a big and unusual number, that its use is inconsistent: Bloomberg News used quadrillion in the headline of an early story Friday about Japan's debt, but later in the day the stories and headlines referred to a "thousand trillion," which is not nearly as much fun.

Questions emailed to the Bloomberg editors responsible for those stories were not returned, suggesting perhaps a lexicographical quadrilliongate.

How much is a quadrillion? The entire human body is said to have just 100 trillion cells; it takes 10 of us to make a quadrillion. Jeff Bezos has a personal fortune of some $25 billion, allowing him to plunk down $250 million for The Washington Post, which is essentially how much money he might find by looking behind his sofa cushions. To get to a quadrillion dollars, however, we would have to have 40,000 Bezoses, or as many people as live in Prescott, Ariz. Neil deGrasse Tyson, the astrophysicist and director of the Hayden Planetarium at the American Museum of Natural History, helpfully offered a few other ways to think about a quadrillion.

"It would take you 31 million years to count to a quadrillion - one number per second, never sleeping," he said in an email, adding that "a quadrillion yen, stacked in 1,000-yen notes, would ascend 70,000 miles high."

He also wrote, although it is not clear how he would know such a thing, that "the total number of all sounds and words ever uttered by all humans who have ever lived is about 100 quadrillion."

"This figure includes all congressional debates and filibusters," Tyson wrote.

Compared with Japan, the U.S. national debt is a mere $16 trillion or so. But if you convert that number into yen, it comes to about $1.5 quadrillion. So it's good to have a currency that conserves its zeros. Of course, that also means the total U.S. debt is even larger than Japan's (although not, it should be noted, as a percentage of gross domestic product).

Hmm. Let's not talk about that.

Source: http://www.staradvertiser.com/news/nyt/20130810_Japans_debt_passes_a_quadrillion_yen.html

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Sunday, August 11, 2013

Florida?s education scandal worth a C or an A, whatever

As scandals go, this was a quick one.

Florida Education Commissioner Tony Bennett resigned amid reports of preferential treatment for the politically influential while he served as Indiana?s superintendent for public instruction. Specifically, it appears he engaged in changing a school grade from a ?C? to an ?A.?

The school in question was a charter school run by a prominent Republican donor. Apparently, it was also used as a shining example of how school grades could identify successful academic outcomes that others could emulate and poor outcomes that could lead to conversion of a public school to a charter school.

As a co-founder of former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush?s Chiefs for Change, Bennett is a true believer in the school grading system and the push for school vouchers and teacher merit pay.

After losing reelection to his Indiana post in November, he was selected to be the next in the revolving door of Florida education commissioners under Gov. Rick Scott. In less than three years, there have been three commissioners and two interim commissioners.

Even before the scandal broke, Bennett?s seven-month stint as Florida schools chief was not without controversy. He was facing pushback on several fronts. The conservative base of Republican voters was deeply troubled by his support of the Common Core state standards, a position he shared with mentor Jeb Bush. On the other end of the political spectrum, there was mounting criticism over efforts to tie merit pay, vouchers and conversion schools to a seemingly faulty and fluid grading system.

Additionally, members of the state Board of Education and some of the state?s influential superintendents asked him to account for the validity of Florida?s school grading system. He proposed ?a safety net? to prevent schools from dropping more than one letter grade, a policy the board approved with some reservation.

In the midst of responding to all his masters here, The Associated Press released emails detailing how Bennett and his Indiana team appeared to be overhauling Indiana?s school grading system to improve the grade of the generous donor?s school.

The most troubling of the emails from Bennett to his team is hard to walk back from. He writes, ?I am a little miffed about this, I hope we come to the meeting today with solutions and not excuses and/or explanations for me to wiggle out of the repeated lies I have told over the past six months.?

Oh my! Nobody likes repeated lies.

Bennett resigned four days after The AP story broke. During those four days Patricia Levesque, the executive director of Bush?s Foundation for Florida?s Future, circulated a letter defending him; Democratic lawmakers called for his resignation, and the governor remained silent.

While the scandal and the resignation are behind us, the policy and systemic problems are still center stage. Isn?t it time for an honest conversation about doing away with a school grading system that is costly, divisive and unreliable?

Systemically, just how much autonomy does the education commissioner have to run the Department of Education and to whom is he directly accountable? In all fairness, it would be difficult for anyone to succeed in a toxic environment of distrust while having to report to so many chiefs.

Among the education chiefs are the commissioner, the state board that hires and can fire the commissioner; the Legislature, which confirms his appointment; the governor, who appoints the board; the former governor who was the father of Florida?s grading system, and his political foundation, which enjoys tremendous influence with legislators. Curiously missing from the hierarchy are local school boards, teachers, parents and students.

Until we address the policy and systemic challenges, we won?t stop the revolving door. Why would any accomplished educational leader want to come to Florida with our record of resignations, divisiveness, lack of autonomy and complex reporting structure?

And why do we keep looking outside Florida? Is it because we?re searching for a gung-ho reformist to implement the national agenda of more testing, school grades, vouchers, charter schools, merit pay and the so-called parent trigger?

Wouldn?t it be preferable to choose a leader who?s familiar with Florida?s schools, their history and their challenges? And wouldn?t it make sense to grant him or her independence to reform the system based on the needs of our students and the advice of their parents?

After all, didn?t legislators spend two sessions extolling the virtues of parent empowerment?

Better yet, perhaps it?s time to return to an elected education commissioner.

Paula Dockery is a syndicated columnist who served in the Florida Legislature for 16 years as a Republican from Lakeland.

Source: http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/08/10/3553498/floridas-education-scandal-worth.html

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rnaze: In Flo-Rida?s song ?Low? he states that Shawty is wearing the apple bottom jeans, the boots...

10 Aug

rnaze:

In Flo-Rida?s song ?Low? he states that Shawty is wearing the apple bottom jeans, the boots with the fur AND the Reeboks with the straps, what is she some kind of four legged morph woman? In all honesty I?m not surprised the whole club is looking at her?

Source: http://twisted-thimbles.tumblr.com/post/57923189654

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Saturday, August 10, 2013

Crews searching for missing investigator find body

OAKLAND, Calif. (AP) ? Authorities found a woman's body on Friday near a Northern California park where they had been searching for a missing federal investigator.

Oakland police Officer Johnna Watson said the body has not been identified and?will be taken to the Solano County coroner.

It was found by Contra Costa County sheriff's search and rescue teams in a woodsy area near Laguna Valley Park in Vacaville, as crews searched for 50-year-old Sandra Coke of Oakland.

The search for Coke was ended after the discovery, and authorities remained tight-lipped about what led dozens of local, state and federal investigators to the area.

Coke, a capital case investigator for the federal public defender's office in Sacramento, was last seen in Oakland on Sunday.

On Thursday, Oakland police identified Coke's former boyfriend, Randy Alana, as a person of interest in the case. He and Coke were seen together Sunday, police said.

Alana, 56, of Oakland, a registered sex offender, was arrested on an unspecified parole violation on Tuesday.

"We are looking at an angle to see if foul play was involved," Watson said.

Coke left her Oakland home shortly after 8:30 p.m. Sunday after reportedly telling her 15-year-old daughter she was meeting with someone who had found her missing dog.

Coke said she would be back in 30 minutes. Her daughter called police when her mother did not come home that night.

A family friend, Laura Burstein, said Coke dated Alana more than 20 years ago. Another friend, Dan Abrahamson, told KGO-TV, that Alana recently reappeared in the area and reached out to Coke for help.

Alana was being held without bail. He is considered a high-risk sex offender, with state records showing he has convictions for rape and kidnapping.

Dozens of Coke's family and friends announced a $100,000 reward on Thursday for any information leading to her return.

"These last few days have been a living nightmare," said her sister, Tanya Coke, who believes foul play may be involved.

Calls to Tanya Coke on Friday were not immediately returned. Earlier, Sandra Coke's family released a statement hoping for her return.

"We are enormously grateful for the efforts of everyone ? law enforcement, colleagues and friends of Sandra, and members of the public and the media ? who have labored day and night to find Sandra," the statement read.

Police found Coke's 2007 Mini Cooper convertible on Monday, just a few blocks from her home and her cellphones were discovered near Interstate 80 in Richmond and near the Oakland-Emeryville border .

As an investigator, Coke was assigned to probe capital cases that are appealed to federal court to ensure death sentences are fair.

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/crews-searching-missing-investigator-body-220216510.html

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Toshiba Excite Write review

Toshiba Excite Write review

It's a tricky thing to name your devices after a verb. And when we say "tricky," we mean ill-advised. That Toshiba could willfully overlook Excite as a magnet for terrible (and terribly negative) puns speaks to its distance from the tablet category (remember the Thrive?). Yet, here we have another generation of Excite tablets and this, the Excite Write, is the line's top-shelf offering. Its Wacom digitizer and included stylus mean this tablet can go toe to toe with the Note 10.1; both have the same screen size and 1,024 degrees of pressure sensitivity. But where Samsung's outsized Note skimped on the HD resolution, Toshiba's gone the opposite direction. Boasting a 2,560 x 1,600 display, a Wacom digitizer, a Tegra 4 heart, 2GB of RAM and Harman Kardon speakers, the Write is a welcome chord change in an otherwise uneventful 10-inch Android fugue. Of course, the catch to all of this premium goodness is a premium price: $600 in this case. You still there?

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Source: http://feeds.engadget.com/~r/weblogsinc/engadget/~3/WjiSPJu9hVY/

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Thursday, August 8, 2013

QOTD: What Automotive Details Are You Missing? | The Truth About ...

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OK, folks: time for one last question of the day (for now, anyway). As you know, we?ve covered the best automotive details and the worst automotive details, both of which garnered well over 200 comments. Interestingly, the ?worst? thread got about 100 more comments than the ?best? thread, proving that we TTACers are a ?glass is half empty? kind of crowd.

With that knowledge in mind, I?ve decided to ask one more pressing question: what automotive details are you missing? In other words: you?re driving down the road and you think to yourself: Why the hell doesn?t it have that? And then you get even more upset when someone tells you that the latest subcompact General Motors vehicle does have that, and it?s standard.

These can be from your own car, a friend?s car, or the industry as whole. And with that in mind, let?s get started:

Convertible Top Open/Close With Key Fob

At Porsche, I discovered that all European convertible models have a feature that allows the convertible top to open and close with the press of a key fob button. Hold down the unlock button in your 911 Cabriolet, for example, and the windows and top all go down. Seems brilliant, right?

Except that feature isn?t offered in the States, presumably for liability reasons. You know: because an American will place a baby on the roof of a convertible, press the button, then sue the automaker for $25 million, which will turn into $95 million once the jurors start crying.

Sliding Doors

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If you?ve been to Europe, chances are you?ve seen the Peugeot 1007, which was recently voted the coolest car ever in a scientific poll taken on the Peugeot 1007 Facebook group.

I love the 1007 because it?s unique in one very important way: it features sliding doors, and it isn?t a minivan. The doors aren?t for the rear passengers, you see, but for the front seats. This allows you to park virtually anywhere and get out of your car, making it the exact opposite of the Ford GT.

Swiveling Headlights

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I know, I know, a few luxury cars have this. And that means in about 10 years, all cars will have it. But to me, that moment couldn?t come soon enough. I think swiveling headlights are one of the greatest things currently offered: they save your neck in dark corners, and they seem to shine exactly where you want them to.

Rear-Facing Third-Row Seats

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I used to own a car with rear-facing third-row seats, which qualifies me as to be an expert on the hotly contested issue of: Should cars have rear-facing third row seats?

The answer is, of course: yes they should. Because let?s be honest: rear-facing third-row seats pretty much always lead to a happy childhood. Also, for those who believe they aren?t safe, here?s a thought: in a rear-end collision, wouldn?t you rather have your legs get hit than the back of your head? I thought so.

Hands-Free Texting

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If you?re like me, you view texting as a necessary evil with which we, as a society, are forced to cope. And if you?re like me, you probably send the occasional text message at a traffic light. Well, guess what? Most people are not like me. Most people are texting at all hours of the day and night, including while driving down the street, the highway, the alley, and, occasionally, the sidewalk.

I recently read a study on texting that said around 60 percent of 13-to-25-year-olds consider it the preferred method of communication. And since texting is so easy to distract us from driving, this is something that automakers will need to integrate better in the coming years. Voice controls? Mind controls? I don?t know. But something.

So, TTAC, what details are you missing? And don?t worry: I promise we?ll have ?answers of the day? posts coming soon.

@DougDeMuro is the author of Plays With Cars and the operator of PlaysWithCars.com. He?s owned an E63 AMG wagon, road-tripped across the US in a Lotus without air conditioning, and posted a six-minute lap time on the Circuit de Monaco in a rented Ford Fiesta. One year after becoming Porsche Cars North America?s youngest manager, he quit to become a writer. His parents are very disappointed.

Source: http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2013/08/qotd-what-automotive-details-are-you-missing/

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Soldier played dead after being shot at Fort Hood

FORT HOOD, Texas (AP) ? A soldier who was repeatedly shot during the Fort Hood shooting rampage says he played dead before realizing the gunman might notice he was sweating.

Staff Sgt. Alonzo Lunsford testified Tuesday during the opening day of the trial for Maj. Nidal Malik Hasan, who is accused of killing 13 people.

Alonzo told jurors he panicked when he saw Hasan was holding a weapon inside a building where soldiers were preparing to deploy in November 2009.

Alonzo says he tried to appear dead after being shot, then later decided to flee because, "dead men don't sweat."

He says soldiers were trying to push their way out of a double-door exit, but one door was locked shut, so it created a bottleneck.

Hasan, who is representing himself, didn't cross examine Lunsford.

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/soldier-played-dead-being-shot-fort-hood-211325082.html

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Thursday, July 11, 2013

Qatar's youths: Why protest? We have it pretty great

Young people in Qatar say their contentment is not just about Qatar's oil wealth, but investment in education and innovation that gives them opportunity.

By Tom A. Peter,?Correspondent / July 10, 2013

A view shows the Qatar Petroleum headquarters (L), which is under construction, and other buildings that make up the downtown Doha skyline in this April 8, 2013 file photo.

Fadi Al-Assaad/REUTERS/File

Enlarge

In a region beset with unrest and antigovernment protests that have ousted leaders and ignited civil wars,?Qatar counts among?the most stable countries. The tiny constitutional monarchy in the Arabian Gulf has been ruled by the same family for almost 150 years.

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Qatar recently received a short burst of attention when its leader, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, unexpectedly announced that he would hand power to his son ? not because of poor health or external pressure, he said, but because?younger leadership was needed to take the country forward.

Said to be the richest nation in the world, Qatar is often seen as an outlier rather than an example for the region because of its prosperity. But for Qatari youths like those Sheikh Hamad hopes his son will shepherd to continued prosperity, the nation?s peace is not so much because of the nation?s wealth, but what the government has done with it.

?People think that we just fell into a pot of gold and now we?re just chilling as a whole nation, but I don?t think that?s the case,? says Hamad Al-Amari, a youth program associate at the Doha Film Institute who also does stand-up comedy. ?Now that we have all that, where do you go from there? Do you just sit or do you take the challenge on and say, ?OK, we have to show everyone that because we have this, we?re going?to be better, we?re going to be creative.? ?

Qatar is home to the world?s third-largest natural gas reserves, but compared to its neighbors in the Arabian Gulf, Qatar has been slower to develop. The difference in the opportunities offered to 20-something Qataris today compared to their parents is vast. Mr. Amari?s father, for example, worked his way through college, eventually earning a PhD. His son, on the other hand received a free education and benefited from the numerous programs that fund higher education for Qataris with the grades to qualify.

Between 1991 and 2011, the net enrollment of Qataris in secondary school has climbed from just 69 percent to 91 percent, according to United Nations figures. Although the number of those who go on to post-secondary education remains low ? the country has about 12 percent gross enrollment rate ? it is not due to lack of government support. The government is actively working to increase enrollment rates to meet its development goals.

Unemployment in Qatar has fallen below 1 percent and a wide array of government benefits has created an environment where Qatari nationals say they feel encouraged use the national wealth as a safety net?that allows them?to innovate and experiment.

Among the loudest in the national cheering section is Khalifa Saelh Al Haroon, founder of ILoveQatar.net, a popular website about Qatar. The site is just one of many of Mr. Haroon?s projects. He sits on numerous boards and works a day job as well.

?I remember someone asking me, ?Why hasn?t Qatar had its own revolution?? To have a revolution you need to have unrest. When the people are happy, what are we going to revolt against?? he says. ?OK, yes, we don?t have a democratic state in the Western understanding of the term, but democracy means that you have a voice and I believe in Qatar that you do have a voice. ? I know that if the people didn?t particularly like something in the country, we would be heard.?

Qatar does have a number of restrictions that could be expected to create frustration, such as a constitutional prohibition against criticizing the emir, the nation?s leader. However, the demographics of Qatar also make it easier for locals to effectively communicate with those in government.

Qatar has about 2 million residents, but only?250,000?of them are native Qataris. A population of that size creates an environment unlike other countries in the region, or arguably in the world ??one where?where citizens can easily voice their concerns.

Still, for all Qatari youths? enthusiasm about the opportunities within their country, the importance of the country?s wealth in providing that potential and staving off unrest cannot be overstated.

It?s not uncommon for a recent Qatari college graduate with no experience to land a job with a starting salary of $65,000 to $80,000 a year, says Darwish Al-Emadi, director of the Social and Economic Survey Research Institute at Qatar University.

?At the end of the day, if you look at the crises in Egypt, Tunisia, those are primarily economic,? he says. ?We have a very fair distribution of wealth in this country, in a way that ordinary people will have a better share of the income.?

Source: http://rss.csmonitor.com/~r/feeds/csm/~3/tx1KR-CXbyk/Qatar-s-youths-Why-protest-We-have-it-pretty-great

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Wednesday, July 10, 2013

Energy Storage, Energy Efficiency, & Other Energy News

A bit more energy news for you, beyond the solar and wind pop stars:

  1. ?Intermittent and Unreliable? ? Another Nuclear Power Plant Fails In Extreme Heat
  2. 5 Ways To Engage Low-Income Customers On Energy Efficiency
  3. Energy Storage Promise Found In Common Chemical
  4. Biggest Oversight In Obama Climate Action Plan
  5. What Would Happen If Candidates & Electric Officials Were Asked To Sign A Climate Action Pledge?
  6. Energy Storage: Why We Need It & What It?s Worth
  7. Waste Wise Turns The Volume Up On Waste Management Solutions

For more, connect with me on Google+ or zacharyshahan.com.

Zachary Shahan (2411 Posts)

I'm the director of CleanTechnica, the most popular cleantech-focused website in the world, and Planetsave, a world-leading green and science news site. I've been covering green news of various sorts since 2008, and I've been especially focused on solar energy, electric vehicles, bicycling, and wind energy for the past few years. Aside from my work on CleanTechnica and Planetsave, I'm the Network Manager for their parent organization ? Important Media ? and I'm the Owner/Founder of Solar Love, EV Obsession, and Bikocity. To connect on some of your favorite social networks, go to ZacharyShahan.com or click on some of the links below.


Source: http://feeds.importantmedia.org/~r/IM-cleantechnica/~3/XqNFrQBqsU8/

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Picasso Masterpiece on Display at UM President?s Office

MISSOULA ? Pablo Picasso?s ?Head of a Woman/Tete de femme? is on display at the University of Montana President?s Office reception area in Main Hall through Aug. 22. The 1903 painting is on loan to the Montana Museum of Art & Culture through a private collection.

?Tete de femme? is from Picasso?s Blue Period, a style that emerged around 1900 and lasted to 1904, coinciding with the artist?s move to Paris. The Blue Period is typified by heavy black lines and somber shades of blue and green. Paintings from the Blue Period depict the poorest residents of the Montmartre district and at the time they were created, brought Picasso little success. However, they are now considered among his most popular works.

Following the tradition of French Symbolist painters such as Odilon Redon and Puvis de Chavannes, Picasso used color to convey emotional qualities. His Blue Period works were influenced by his depression and the suicide of his friend Carlos Casagemas.

?Tete de femme? was first owned by the poet Guillaume Apollinaire, who championed the new art of Cubism and whose poems ushered in Modernity.

This special loan is accompanied by a Picasso lithograph from MMAC?s Permanent Collection ?The Old King/Le Vieux Roi? from 1959.

?We hope many campus visitors take this very special opportunity to see these Picassos in our summer tribute to one of the most important artists of the last century,? said Barbara Koostra, director of the MMAC.

For more information call MMAC at 406-243-2019 or visit the museum?s website at http://www.umt.edu/montanamuseum.

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Note to media: Digital images of the painting and lithographs are available. To request a copy, call Shawn Whitworth at 406-243-2019 or email shawn.whitworth@mso.umt.edu.

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Source: http://news.umt.edu/2013/07/070313tete.aspx

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Chevron wants more dialogue on Poland shale gas rules

By Christian Lowe

WARSAW (Reuters) - Energy major Chevron said on Tuesday it was committed to shale gas exploration in Poland though it wanted more consultation with the government on draft amendments to rules before they are adopted.

Three foreign firms - Exxon Mobil , Talisman and Marathon - have pulled out of Polish shale gas, citing difficult geology and short-comings in the regulatory environment.

Industry lobby groups say the draft amendments to the hydrocarbons law, though better than previous versions, do not create the right conditions for firms to invest in Poland, which is seen by some in the industry as Europe's best shale gas hope.

John P. Claussen, Chevron's country manager for Poland, said the industry's dialogue with the government on the shale gas rules had been positive, but there were still issues with the draft to talk about. The environment ministry has submitted the draft to the cabinet for approval.

"We would like the opportunity to continue to have dialogue about some of the issues that are going forward in the bill," Claussen told Reuters in an interview.

"There has been good consultation between the ministry of environment and the industry and there is more opportunity for that," he said.

Claussen would not specify which areas of the draft his company wanted changed. Industry groups have said they want more assurances that they can convert exploration permits into production licenses if they hit gas, more time to explore if needed, and lighter penalties if they miss deadlines.

EXPLORATION WELL

Chevron has four concessions in southeastern Poland, which represent its first shale gas presence in Europe.

Claussen said that after drilling an exploration well on one of the concessions, Frampol, the company did not plan any further work on that particular well.

He declined to say if that decision was made because data from the well showed there were no commercial reserves. He did say though that Chevron was planning more work on other wells, and was not ruling out more wells on the Frampol concession.

"Where the industry is right now is evaluation of potential resources .... It's still very preliminary in terms of the results that we have," Claussen said.

"We are still committed to the work that we are doing in Poland. We still have work to do."

At another of its Polish shale gas concessions, near the village of Zurawlow, local people occupied a work site when contractors started trying to erect a fence.

Claussen said the company was working with local authorities to try to resolve that issue. He said the company was committed to operating in a safe and responsible way, and was bringing real benefits to communities where it operates.

Campaigners say extracting shale gas, which involves pumping liquid at high pressure into the earth to fracture rock formations that trap natural gas, is harmful to the environment, something the industry denies.

(Editing by Jeff Coelho)

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/chevron-wants-more-dialogue-poland-shale-gas-rules-153434399.html

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Monday, July 8, 2013

Davie storeownerwho helped make Florida oranges famous celebrates 103rd birthday

When Al Roth opened New River Groves in Davie in 1964, he was a few months past his 54th birthday and about to turn the 10 acres into the family business for the next five decades.

On Sunday, Roth turned 103, and the patriarch of the fruit-shipping family celebrated by greeting family and friends at his landmark roadside, open-air farmer?s market-style business at 5660 Griffin Rd. , which is now run by his son, Bob.

Al Roth was enjoying, well, the fruits of his labor ? a well-known business with the family name that is credited with helping entice tourism to the area. The family and the store are synonymous with the baskets of oranges they were famous for shipping across the country to colder climates.

When his son took over, he added the Roth name to the store name.

?I was pleased because Bob honored my name,? the centenarian said. ?When you have that much honor in your name, there is nothing better than that.?

While times have changed since the Grove opened, the charm of the store for locals and tourists remains the same.

Crowds of well-wishers kept filing in to wish Al Roth a happy birthday. After all, when Roth was born, William Howard Taft ? the 27th president ? was in office and it would still be two years before the sinking of the Titanic.

Special occasion

?I never got to wish someone a happy 103rd birthday before,? said Kellie Marcus, who comes to the store nearly every Saturday.

?All kinds of people come by this store. The family is very well known in the community, it?s a wonderful place.?

Live music greeted people near the juice stand. Slices of cake were set out for people to enjoy. A row of chairs circled Al while a line of people waited their turn to wish Al Roth a happy birthday.

And there was plenty of reminiscing. When New River Groves first opened, the entire family lived in a small apartment above the store, and all retail store operations as well as fruit picking, packing and shipping operations ran out of the original location in Davie. The focus in the first few years was strictly on fruit deliveries and Florida Gift Fruit Shipping.

Family affair

Today, it?s still a family business. The store is run by nearly every member of the Roth family. Bob is the owner, but his wife?s family, his son and his six grandchildren all play a part in running the operation, from making their famous Key lime pies and fudge, to working the counter.

?Our store is something out of the past,? Bob Roth said. ?We like to have a nostalgic atmosphere. We are very family oriented.?

The Grove has also made its mark on popular culture in South Florida. The store was featured in two feature films, Cape Fear and The Substitute.

?We?re just a family business,? Bob Roth said. ?It?s tough competing with the Sam?s or Costco?s of the world. ?

He wants to do what his father did. He wants to follow in his father?s footsteps.

?I hope to pass this place on to my family some day,? he said.

Source: http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/07/07/3489595/davie-storeownerwho-helped-make.html

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US economy adds 195K jobs; unemployment 7.6 pct.

In this Monday, June 24, 2013, photo, a job seeker gets her resume critiqued at a career fair, in King of Prussia, Pa. U.S. employers added a robust 195,000 jobs in June and many more in April and May than previously thought. The job growth raises hopes for a stronger economy in the second half of 2013. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)

In this Monday, June 24, 2013, photo, a job seeker gets her resume critiqued at a career fair, in King of Prussia, Pa. U.S. employers added a robust 195,000 jobs in June and many more in April and May than previously thought. The job growth raises hopes for a stronger economy in the second half of 2013. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)

In this June 21, 2013 photograph a sign seeking drivers is posted outside the Pearl, Miss., customer service center for Central Transport, a long haul transport trucking company. U.S. employers added a robust 195,000 jobs in June and many more in April and May than previously thought. The job growth raises hopes for a stronger economy in the second half of 2013. (AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis)

(AP) ? U.S. employers are sending a message of confidence in the economy ? hiring more workers, raising pay and making the job market appear strong enough for the Federal Reserve to slow its bond purchases as early as September.

The economy gained a robust 195,000 jobs in June and many more in April and May than previously thought. The unemployment rate remained 7.6 percent in June because more people started looking for jobs ? a healthy sign ? and some didn't find them. The government doesn't count people as unemployed unless they're looking for work.

The Labor Department's report Friday pointed to a U.S. job market that's showing surprising resilience in the face of tax increases, federal spending cuts and economic weakness overseas. Employers have added an average 202,000 jobs for the past six months, up from 180,000 in the previous six.

The job growth is being fueled in part by consumer spending and the housing recovery. Consumer confidence has reached a 5? year high and is helping drive up sales of homes and cars. Hiring was especially strong in June among retailers, hotels, restaurants, construction companies and financial services firms.

"The numbers that we're seeing are more sustainable than we thought," said Paul Edelstein, U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight, a forecasting firm. "We're seeing better job numbers, the stock market is increasing and home prices are rising."

Average pay also rose sharply last month. It's exceeded inflation this year after barely keeping pace since the Great Recession ended four years ago. Average hourly pay rose 10 cents in June to $24.01. Over the past 12 months, it's risen 2.2 percent. Over the same period, consumer prices have increased 1.4 percent.

Stocks surged Friday. The Dow Jones industrial average jumped 147 points, nearly 1 percent. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note soared to 2.73 percent, its highest point since August 2011, from 2.51 percent late Wednesday. That's a sign that investors think the economy is improving and that the Fed will slow its bond buying this year. If it did, long-term rates would likely rise.

Among the employers benefiting from Americans' continued willingness to spend is Carlisle Wide Plank Floors, based in Stoddard, N.H. Carlisle makes hardwood flooring used in stores, restaurants and hotels. CEO Michael Stanek said orders jumped 30 percent in the first quarter compared with a year earlier.

The company is hiring factory, sales and administrative employees to meet the higher demand. Carlisle expects to add about 15 employees this year to its 85-person workforce.

Friday's report showed that the U.S. economy added 70,000 more jobs in April and May than the government had previously estimated ? 50,000 in April and 20,000 in May.

The Fed has been buying $85 billion in Treasury and mortgage bonds each month since late last year. The purchases pushed long-term interest rates to historic lows, fueled a stock rally and encouraged consumers and businesses to borrow and spend. The low rates have helped support an economy that's had to absorb government spending cuts and a Social Security tax increase that's shrunk paychecks this year.

John Silvia, chief economist at Wells Fargo, said he thinks the Fed will announce at its September policy meeting that it will start reducing its bond purchases, perhaps to $75 billion a month.

Chairman Ben Bernanke has said the Fed's bond buying could end around the time unemployment reaches 7 percent. The Fed foresees that happening around mid-2014. But Silvia said he didn't think unemployment would reach 7 percent by then. He thinks the Fed could continue its bond buying into 2015.

Friday's report contained at least one element of concern: Many of the job gains were in generally lower-paying industries, a trend that emerged earlier this year. The hotels, restaurants and entertainment industry added 75,000 jobs in June. This industry has added an average 55,000 jobs a month this year, nearly double its average in 2012. Retailers added 37,000. Temporary jobs rose 10,000.

The health care industry added 20,000 jobs, construction 13,000. But manufacturing, which includes many higher-paying positions, shed 6,000. The manufacturing sector has weakened this year, in part because struggling economies in Europe and elsewhere have reduced demand for U.S. goods.

Many of the new jobs are only part time. The number of Americans who said they were working part time but would prefer full-time work jumped 322,000 to 8.2 million ? the most in eight months.

That could be a sign that some employers are hiring more part-time workers to avoid the health care reform law's requirement that companies provide health coverage to full-time staff. That mandate was to take effect Jan. 1. But this week, the Obama administration postponed it until 2015.

The rise in part-time jobs helped boost one measure of weakness in the job market ? the so-called underemployment rate. This includes not only the unemployed but also people with part-time jobs who want full-time work and people who have stopped looking for work.

In June, the underemployment rate rose from 13.8 percent to 14.3 percent. That's still down from 14.8 percent a year ago. The rate peaked at 17.1 percent in April 2010.

Jobs have been added at a faster pace this year than the economy's sluggish growth would suggest. The economy expanded at only a 1.8 percent annual rate in the first three months of the year. Most analysts think it grew even more slowly in the April-June quarter.

But later this month, the government will revise its estimate of the economy's growth for the first quarter, and many analysts think it will be revised up. They also think the economy will accelerate in the second half of the year.

Last month's job growth came solely from the private sector, particularly services firms. Government jobs fell 7,000, mostly at the federal level. The federal government has shed 65,000 jobs in the past 12 months. Some of that decline is due to the spending cuts that kicked in March 1.

Declining government employment has been a drag on the job market since the recession officially ended in June 2009. In a typical recovery, governments add at least 20,000 jobs a month.

Solid hiring in the private sector is lifting wages, even in some lower-paying industries. Average hourly pay for retail employees, for example, rose 6 cents in June to $16.64, and is up nearly 2 percent in the past year.

The overall increase in pay is "the standout feature of this report," said Ryan Sweet, an economist at Moody's Analytics. Low inflation rate is also helping consumers, he noted.

"The tide is continuing to turn for the consumer," Sweet said. "The consumer is going to continue to be able to shoulder this recovery."

June's 7.6 percent unemployment rate is derived from a survey of households, which found that 177,000 more people started looking for jobs last month. Most found them. The rise in job seekers suggests that Americans think their prospects have brightened. Because some job seekers didn't find work right away, the number of unemployed was largely unchanged at 11.8 million.

The job gain for the month is calculated from a separate survey of employers.

The percentage of Americans either working or actively looking for work rose for a second straight month to 63.5 percent. This is called the "labor force participation rate." The participation rate has been generally declining since peaking at 67.3 percent in 2000. That's partly the result of baby boomers retiring and leaving the workforce.

___

AP Business Writer Martin Crutsinger contributed to this report.

___

Follow Chris Rugaber on Twitter at http://Twitter.com/ChrisRugaber

Associated Press

Source: http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/f70471f764144b2fab526d39972d37b3/Article_2013-07-05-Economy/id-ef251890078b45e2add446ec34cc7a16

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Sunday, July 7, 2013

At tail end of trans-Pacific flight, terror

A fire truck sprays water on Asiana Flight 214 after it crashed at San Francisco International Airport on Saturday, July 6, 2013, in San Francisco. (AP Photo/Noah Berger)

A fire truck sprays water on Asiana Flight 214 after it crashed at San Francisco International Airport on Saturday, July 6, 2013, in San Francisco. (AP Photo/Noah Berger)

This photo provided by Antonette Edwards shows what a federal aviation official says was an Asiana Airlines flight crashing while landing at San Francisco airport on Saturday, July 6, 2013. It was not immediately known whether there were any injuries. (AP Photo/Antonette Edwards )

This photo provided by Wei Yeh shows what a federal aviation official says was an Asiana Airlines flight crashing while landing at San Francisco airport on Saturday, July 6, 2013. It was not immediately known whether there were any injuries. (AP Photo/Wei Yeh)

Smokes rises from Asiana Flight 214 after it crashed at San Francisco International Airport in San Francisco, Saturday, July 6, 2013. (AP Photo/Bay Area News Group, John Green)

Smokes rises from Asiana Flight 214 after it crashed at San Francisco International Airport in San Francisco, Saturday, July 6, 2013. (AP Photo/Bay Area News Group, John Green)

(AP) ? After nearly 11 hours in the air, the passengers and crew aboard a jumbo jetliner traveling from Seoul to San Francisco were looking forward to a quick and uneventful landing as Asiana Airlines Flight 214 approached the airport from over San Francisco Bay. What they got instead, without a word of warning, was terror, panic and confusion.

The Boeing 777 slammed into the runway on Saturday morning, breaking off its tail and catching fire before slumping to a stop that allowed the lucky ones to flee down emergency slides into thick smoke and a trail of debris. Firefighters doused the flames that burned through the fuselage with foam and water, and police officers on the ground threw utility knives up to crew members so they could cut the seat belts of those who remained trapped as rescue crews removed the injured.

By the time the 307 people on the flight all were accounted for several hours later, two Chinese teenage girls found outside wreckage had been confirmed dead and 182 transported to area hospitals. But as harrowing as the crash was, survivors and witnesses were just as stunned to learn that the toll of deaths and serious injuries wasn't much higher.

"When you heard that explosion, that loud boom and you saw the black smoke...you just thought, my god, everybody in there is gone," said Ki Siadatan, who lives a few miles away from San Francisco International Airport and watched the plane's "wobbly" and "a little bit out of control" approach from his balcony. "My initial reaction was I don't see how anyone could have made it."

Vedpal Singh, who was sitting in the middle of the aircraft and survived the crash with his family, said there was no forewarning from the pilot or any crew members before the plane touched down hard and he heard a loud sound.

"We knew something was horrible wrong," said Singh, who suffered a fractured collarbone and had his arm was in a sling.

"It's miraculous we survived," he said.

A visibly shaken Singh said the plane went silent before people tried to get out anyway they could. His 15-year-old son said luggage tumbled from the overhead bins. The entire incident lasted about 10 seconds.

Another passenger, Benjamin Levy, 39, said it looked to him that the plane was flying too low and too close to the bay as it approached the runway. Levy, who was sitting in an emergency exit row, said he felt the pilot try to lift the jet up before it crashed, and thinks the maneuver might have saved some lives.

"Everybody was screaming. I was trying to usher them out," he recalled of the first seconds after the landing. "I said, 'Stay calm, stop screaming, help each other out, don't push.'"

San Francisco Fire Department Chief Joanne Hayes-White said the two who died were found on "the exterior" of the plane. "Having surveyed that area, we're lucky that there hasn't been a greater loss," she said.

Airport spokesman Doug Yakel said 49 people were critically injured and 132 had less significant injuries.

The flight originated in Shanghai, China, and stopped over in Seoul, South Korea, before coming to San Francisco, airport officials said. The airline said there were 16 crew members aboard and 291 passengers. South Korea's Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport said that the plane's passengers included 141 Chinese, 77 South Koreans, 61 Americans, three Canadians, three from India, one Japanese, one Vietnamese and one from France, while the nationalities of the remaining three haven't been confirmed. Thirty of the passengers were children.

Chinese state media identified the dead as two 16-year-old girls who were middle school students in China's eastern Zhejiang province. China Central Television cited a fax from Asiana Airlines to the Jiangshan city government. They were identified as Ye Mengyuan and Wang Linjia.

At least 70 Chinese students and teachers were on the plane heading to summer camps, according to education authorities in China.

Asiana President Yoon Young-doo said at a televised news conference that it will take time to determine the cause of the crash. But when asked about the possibility of engine or mechanical problems, he said he doesn't believe they could have been the cause. He said the plane was bought in 2006 but didn't provide further details or elaborate. Asiana officials later said the plane was also built that year.

Yoon also bowed and offered an apology, "I am bowing my head and extending my deep apology" to the passengers, their families and the South Korean people over the crash, he said.

South Korean President Park Geun-hye offered her condolences to the families of passengers and said her government would make all necessary efforts to help handle the aftermath, according to her spokeswoman Kim Haing.

"I offer my deep condolences to the families of the passengers who suffered from the unexpected Asiana plane crash," South Korean President Park Geun-hye said, according to her spokeswoman Kim Haing. Park said that the South Korean government will make all necessary efforts to help handle the aftermath, according to Kim.

Based on witness accounts in the news and video of the wreckage, Mike Barr, a former military pilot and accident investigator who teaches aviation safety at the University of Southern California, said it appeared the plane approached the runway too low and something may have caught the runway lip ? the seawall at the end of the runway.

San Francisco is one of several airports around the country that border bodies of water that have walls at the end of their runways to prevent planes that overrun a runway from ending up in the water.

Since the plane was about to land, its landing gear would have already been down, Barr said. It's possible the landing gear or the tail of the plane hit the seawall, he said. If that happened, it would effectively slam the plane into the runway, he said.

Noting that some witnesses reported hearing the plane's engines rev up just before the crash, Barr said that would be consistent with a pilot who realized at the last minute that the plane was too low and was increasing power to the engines to try to increase altitude. Barr said he could think of no reason why a plane would come in to land that low.

Kate Belding was out jogging just before 11:30 a.m. on a path across the water from the airport when she noticed the plane approaching the runway in a way that "just didn't look like it was coming in quite right."

"Then all of a sudden I saw what looked like a cloud of dirt puffing up and then there was a big bang and it kind of looked like the plane maybe bounced (as it neared the ground)," she said. "I couldn't really tell what happened, but you saw the wings going up and (in) a weird angle."

Four pilots were aboard the plane and they rotated on a two-person shift during the flight, according to The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport in South Korea. The two who piloted the plane at the time of crash were Lee Jeong-min and Lee Gang-guk.

Yoon, the Asiana president, described the pilots as "skilled," saying three had logged more than 10,000 hours each of flight time. He said the fourth had put in almost that much time, but officials later corrected that to say the fourth had logged nearly 5,000 hours. All four are South Koreans.

Asiana is a South Korean airline, second in size to national carrier Korean Air. It has recently tried to expand its presence in the United States, and joined the Star Alliance, which is anchored in the U.S. by United Airlines.

The 777-200 is a long-range plane from Boeing. The twin-engine aircraft is often used for flights from one continent to another because it can travel 12 hours or more without refueling.

The most notable accident involving a 777 occurred on Jan. 17, 2008 at Heathrow Airport in London. British Airways Flight 28 landed hard about 1,000 feet short of the runway and slid onto the start of the runway. The impact broke the 777-200's landing gear. There were 47 injuries, but no fatalities.

___

Lowy reported from Washington, D.C. Associated Press writers Jason Dearen and Sudhin Thanawala in San Francisco, Scott Mayerowitz in New York, Pauline Arrillaga in Phoenix, Hyung-jin Kim in Seoul, South Korea, and Louise Watt in Beijing contributed to this report.

Associated Press

Source: http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/cae69a7523db45408eeb2b3a98c0c9c5/Article_2013-07-07-San%20Francisco%20Airliner%20Crash/id-c025e7ef32fd42339c39afe2c1307b68

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wethinkwedream: taurus-rose: Saw this on facebook this...

Saw this on facebook this morning:?

?So this is what happened right now. Taken this morning from Surabaya Zoo, East Java, Indonesia. Horrible. A living hell. They eat plastics just to stay alive. Please share this, Save Surabaya Zoo. Nobody cares but us who speak for the unspoken! The world must know!"

I found a petition to close the zoo down:

http://www.change.org/petitions/dr-susilo-bambang-yudhoyono-close-surabaya-zoo

Source: http://swallowing--dramamine.tumblr.com/post/54807815065

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Military family blooming

Published: July 7, 2013

NEWTON, England - Blooming where you are planted is, like most tossed-off admonitions, easier said than done. But for Beth and Lee Sylvester, who consider their house on Grand Boulevard home, summer brings, once more, affirmation to the fields overlooking their current address in the English countryside.

For weeks through spring, the hillside beyond their back door was a waving quilt of sunny rapeseed. Then, with the arrival of the summer solstice, poppies, well, popped, an explosion of blood orange across the seasonal canvas.

The lesson here is the poppies were there all along, of course, but their inching up took patience, persistence and energy.

So it is with the Sylvesters, Beth and Lee, 47 and 49, as well as their four stair-step daughters (ranging in age from 14 to 7): Emily, Juliette, Sabrina and Olivia. Four years into a posting of undetermined length - Lee, twice retired from the U.S. military, is a Department of Defense civilian employee working at a nearby base - the family has made a point not merely of blending in, but of enhancing the local biosphere.

It's not all fish and chips and Victoria sponges, despite settling in an idyllic spot suggesting Milne-meets-Austen. "We're here for a time," Beth says, "and we're going to make the best of it. And if I have to live without Paul Newman's pineapple salsa in exchange for scones, I can do that."

v v

Going native may be easier for the girls, whose activities are entwined with forces external and inexorable.

Immersed in the local year-round school calendar, they've adopted lilting English accents straight out of "Harry Potter," embraced English sports (Emily excels at rounders, what Lee calls "baseball lite"), and even landed roles in "Sometimes Suicide," a dark but ultimately redemptive 2012 Christmas video by Pink New Dolphins.

By contrast, there is little that is compulsory for the grown-ups, rendering their expanding sphere of influence all the more impressive.

Lee is a member of the Geddington Volunteer Fire Brigade, a men's group that, with the expansion of nearby professional departments, (a) has precious few genuine lifesaving responsibilities and (b) apparently is as hard to join as Augusta National.

The highlight of the group's social calendar is the annual Boxing Day "Squirt," in which GVFB and a rival brigade from the next town suspend a beer keg from a wire over the River Ise and attempt to push it to the other's side using spray from their fire hoses.

"Best of five is about all Queen Eleanor (GVFB's pump truck) can manage," Beth says, "before she overheats."

v v

All of that makes great fodder for the quarterly tri-village newsletter, which Beth, with a journalism degree from the University of Florida and a handful of years with "Stars and Stripes," took over last summer from the editor/publisher/ad rep who'd run it for 16 years and 125 issues.

Allowing a Yank to assume responsibility for the local news is no small measure of the trust and affection the Sylvesters have cultivated, further demonstrated the morning of July 4 - Independence Day back home - when Beth was greeted by a genial flood of text messages at the rare hoisting of their American flag.

"One said, 'Wouldn't you like to come back into the fold?' " read Beth. "There's plenty of room."

In fact, the grown-wups - at least - concede a bit of homesickness. Even though local supermarkets deliver, Beth misses Publix, especially when you can take what you picked up for an after-work picnic on Green Key Beach, squeezing in a brand new sunset memory before the no-see-'ems begin to swarm.

They also miss good barbecue and driving on the right side of the road and having family nearby, to restore, as Christian Moore, Beth's brother says, "the natural order."

And they miss being able to use their entire house throughout the winter. Except when they're sleeping, from December until the last frost, the Sylvesters seal themselves inside the connecting kitchen and family room of their 600-year-old house, huddled by a Franklin-inspired stove and leaving the rest of the place - including the room where Oliver Cromwell was said to have dined after defeating Charles I in the Battle of Naseby (1645) - to its creaks, groans and, presumably, ghosts. (Search "The Newton haunting.")

v v

And that, when reassignment comes, possibly to MacDill Air Force Base, is what Lee will miss. "When Americans were celebrating their first Thanksgiving (in 1621)," he says, "this house was already 200 years old. I like that."

He would. A medieval history major at Florida, Lee has used frequent (weeklong) school breaks to take his family prospecting among the English ruins he read about in textbooks.

It's all about having a plan and executing it, a concept that applies equally to expatriates and the resolutely domesticated. Felicitous outcomes rarely just happen, Woody Allen's "90 percent of life" notwithstanding.

Attendance may be mandatory, but committing to action is something else entirely. On that, Henry Percy's example is convenient and illustrative. When Richard III charged Henry Tudor in the 1485 Battle at Bosworth Field, Percy held back, his spectator troops influencing the outcome, the throne and the future of dramatic theater, otherwise Shakespeare may never have written that line about horses and kingdoms.

Genuine accomplishment, then, happens at the margins, emerging as a result of effort, persistence and design.

"You don't want to wake up when you're 45," Sylvester says, "and wonder why you're unhappy, you don't have a job you love, or you're not successful."

Like sudden poppies and perennial American expats, you must bloom where you are planted.

email: tjackson@tampatrib.com

(813) 371-1851

www.Facebook.com/TomJacksonTribune

Twitter: @tjacksonTBO

Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/tbo/pasco/~3/Lcjd6lsRg_g/

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Oil price climbs after strong US jobs report

NEW YORK (AP) ? The price of oil marched higher Friday with a positive report on U.S. hiring and ongoing concerns about the crisis in Egypt.

Benchmark crude for August delivery rose $1.98, or 2 percent, to finish at $103.22 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That's the highest closing price since May 2, 2012.

Following the ouster of Egyptian president Mohammed Morsi on Wednesday, his supporters began a series of protests and attacks Friday. The military opened fire as hundreds of protesters marched on a headquarters of the Republican Guard

Egypt is not an oil-producer, but its control of the Suez Canal, one of the world's busiest shipping lanes, gives it a crucial role in maintaining global energy supplies.

For now supplies are moving freely through the canal.

U.S. employers added a robust 195,000 jobs in June and many more in April and May than previously thought. The job growth suggests a stronger economy and makes it more likely the Federal Reserve will slow its bond purchases before year's end.

Those bond purchases have supported the economy by helping keep long-term interest rates low. That in turn has given a boost to investments such as stocks and oil.

At the pump, the national average for a gallon of gas stayed at $3.48 for the third straight day. That's down 14 cents from a month ago and 14 cents higher than a year ago.

Brent crude, which is used to set prices for crude oils used by many U.S. refineries, rose $2.18, or 2.1 percent, to end at $107.72 per barrel on the ICE Futures exchange in London.

In other energy futures trading on the Nymex:

? Wholesale gasoline rose 6 cents to finish at $2.90 per gallon.

? Natural gas fell 7 cents to end at $3.62 per 1,000 cubic feet.

? Heating oil added 4 cents to finish at $2.99 a gallon.

__

Pablo Gorondi in Budapest contributed to this report.

Associated Press

Source: http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/f70471f764144b2fab526d39972d37b3/Article_2013-07-05-Oil-Prices/id-a29375d9396443a2893562ccb78c7365

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Saturday, July 6, 2013

In China, Nestle and Danone play it by the book

SHANGHAI (Reuters) ? Swift responses from Swiss food company Nestle and French rival Danone to Beijing?s announcement that it was investigating possible price-fixing of instant milk formulas are textbook examples of how firms should deal with such crises in China, executives and consultants say.

Read More Post Published: 06 July 2013
Found in section: Finance

Source: http://yesbuthowever.com/in-china-nestle-and-danone-play-it-by-the-book/

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How Google Flu Trends Is Getting to the Bottom of Messy Data

Churning through, tabulating, and modeling millions of search queries every day, Google Flu Trends can measure, a full two weeks before the CDC, the incidence of influenza-like illnesses (ILI) across the U.S. Any official response to a flu pandemic, such as vaccine distribution and timing, could be greatly enhanced with such an early warning. And while not billed as an ersatz measure, Google Flu has had an uncannily high correlation with the CDC's own slower, yet more assiduously produced estimate of ILIs.

Until this past flu season, that is. The algorithm drastically overestimated the actual flu rate, in some cases by a factor of almost two, according to a report in Nature News. It's still not 100% certain why it failed, especially since Google isn't speaking publicly about it just yet.

Big data systems like Google Flu are complex and unwieldy beasts. They can (and sometimes do) fail to give us the insights we think they should. They're temperamental, messy, and can break down when the data or model changes unpredictably. So as your business adapts to making more and more data-driven decisions, from managing supply chains to hiring the best employees, how can you be confident in your big data decision making process?

I spoke to Rajan Patel, co-inventor of Google Flu, and he explained the two strategies in their assurance process: algorithms that detect and mitigate aberrations in search frequency that might throw their estimate off, and people to get to the root cause of system failures so that biases get rooted out of statistical models. The algorithms manage most of the day-to-day sanity checks before releasing estimates to the public, and the deeper systemic investigations by people are sparked by abnormalities like the H1N1 outbreak in 2009 and this past winter's flu season.

The Google approach suggests a certain data vigilantism comprised of smart people wielding smart algorithms to act as sentinels against faulty inference. Big data vigilantism can help your company cope with two of big data's main issues: messiness and sampling bias, and ultimately help contribute to growing your confidence in wielding big data in your decision process.

Messiness
At the core of the issue with flu measurement (and most projects involving large amounts of data) is ambiguity; both in the intent of a search query, and in the sense that the reference rate from the CDC measures influenza-like illnesses, which might include non-flu ailments that cause fever, cough, or sore throat. Search terms directly relating to a flu symptom or complication are conflated between people who actually have the flu and those that are expressing concerned awareness about it ? and CDC measurements mingle people who actually have the flu and those that are just expressing some flu-like symptoms. Trying to determine the actual flu incidence requires some careful disambiguation. This is one place where smarter algorithms may come into data vigilantism: pulling out the information that you actually want to measure from your big, messy pile of data.

Researchers at Johns Hopkins are tackling an even more chaotic source of data for measuring flu: tweets. But by implementing some careful linguistic reverse engineering, their algorithm is able to take into account the context of the tweet and disambiguate the meaning. For instance, they noticed that when the word "flu" was used as the subject in a sentence it suggested that the message was more likely to be about awareness than infection. This pattern, or "template", then gets encoded into the algorithm as something predictive of awareness tweets, along with many other linguistic templates. Using the smarter algorithm their system was able to filter out the awareness messages and focus on the infection tweets, scoring a correlation much closer to that of the CDC.

Sampling Bias
Microsoft researcher Kate Crawford points out another pitfall of working with big data: sampling bias. But this again is something that smarter algorithms can also help correct for, if you make the effort to understand the bias in your data and adjust for it in the algorithm. For instance, we know from Pew surveys that Twitter usage skews towards younger age demographics. Any flu measurement based on Twitter messages would necessarily entail that demographic bias. To correct for this, we need to know the age of each person sending a flu-related Tweet, but thankfully we can estimate that from data too! In fact, researchers at UMass Lowell are already working out the details of integrating age-estimates into flu prediction from social media. So with a little bit of investigation to understand the bias of a sample, we can often correct for it downstream with better algorithms.

The Importance of "Why?"
Messy, ambiguous data and hidden biases underscore a growing need to hire and train data vigilantes to watch over and ask "why?" about our every interpretation from big data. Big data kitsch promotes a world of blissful ignorance in its focus on correlation without explanation. But the data vigilantes do need to understand "why", sometimes to debug a spurious correlation or systemic failure (like we saw with Google Flu Trends), and other times to be able to develop a smarter method to measure the thing that we really want to measure.

It can be tempting to use data as a crutch in decision-making: "The data says so!" But sometimes the data lets us down and that exciting correlation you found is just a by-product of a messy, biased sample. More advanced algorithms can sometimes help cut through the mess and correct the sample, and smart skeptics can help step back, reflect, and ask if what the data is "saying" actually fits with what you know and expect about the world. Hiring and training these data vigilanties as well as inculcating a healthy dose of data skepticism throughout your culture and team can only help bolster the quality of decisions you ultimately make.

Source: http://blogs.hbr.org/cs/2013/07/how_google_flu_trends_is_getting_to_the_bottom.html

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